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Prediction for CME (2023-07-11T19:24:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2023-07-11T19:24Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/25917/-1
CME Note: Bright southern partial halo CME with a wider faint shock front. Its source is a large filament eruption with deep dimming and high post-eruptive arcades occurring in southern hemisphere south of AR 3363 around 2023-07-11T19:15Z (SDO 304,193, EUVI A 195, 304) centered around S35E05.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2023-07-14T15:55Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2023-07-14T06:13Z
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 5.0
Prediction Method: SARM
Prediction Method Note: 
CME observed at 21.5 Rs: 2023-07-11 23:40
 - Time at C2: 2023-07-11 19:24
 - Radial speed: 858.0 km/s
 - Half angle: 39 deg
 - Eruption location: S35E10
 Inferences:
   - No flare association was found
 Predictions for Earth:
   - In-situ shock speed: 663.40 km/s
   - Shock arrival time: 2023-07-14 06:13 (i.e. predicted transit time: 58.82 hours)
Lead Time: 48.48 hour(s)
Difference: 9.70 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Marlon Nunez (UMA) on 2023-07-12T15:26Z
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